![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Whether Russia will “win or lose.” As previously explained, by win I mean a) controlling the eastern part of Ukraine, b) not having intolerable declines in Russian economic conditions (i.e., a 10 to 15% of GDP would be tolerable while a 30 to 40% decline would not) and c) Putin staying in power and remaining on the world stage (e.g., attending the G-20 meeting). Thus far, it looks like Russia is winning, though maybe “lesser loser” would be a better way of describing Russia’s position, which has also been terribly damaged by the war. Also, because the devastation in Ukraine has been so much greater than it has been in Russia, and because this will be economically costly to Ukraine and/or those countries that will pay to have it rebuilt, the war looks like it will be even more costly to NATO countries, so that also will be relative win for Russia.Here’s an excerpt from the article:Īs far as the changing world order due to the great powers conflict, there are three things that I (and some important government leaders) expect to learn by watching how the conflict in Ukraine is going. In his latest article titled – Reflections on the 4th of July, Ray Dalio discusses a number of his reflections including the world order and how it’s changing. ![]()
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